I’ve been reading your blog for awhile now and this post is excellent! I actually just posted a similar article on my blog which gets just a touch technical on the issue of rate changes. My basic point, echoing yours a bit, is that predicting the ‘right’ time to lock is essentially gambling. If you can afford to gamble, playing the market may make sense, especially if you know a bit about what affects rates. However, even well informed blackjack players statistically lose more than they win. The bottom line that you make clear is that the rates we’re experiencing right now are statistical outliers that make already lower home prices relatively even LESS expensive.

My article is here: http://markandersonmortgage.com/marksblog/?p=23

-Mark