I just came across this chart on The Big Picture blog which was created by one of their loyal readers, Steve Barry, to show the changes in home prices (adjusted for inflation) since the Case Shiller index started tracking home prices in 1890.
Click on the chart to see a larger version (or here if you need to see it even bigger).
A few things strike me looking at this chart:
- None of us should be surprised that prices are down from what they were in the fist half of the 2000′s decade.
- If the projections are correct, then it won’t just be the people who bought or refinanced in 2004-2006 who will be in trouble. Anyone who purchased in the last 10 years may see their home value drop below their purchase price.
- I still think homes are a good investment since we all have to live someplace, and the alternative to buying a home is to pay down someone else’s mortgage and live in a rental. But, we shouldn’t be looking at homes as a high growth investment. Think of it more like the slow growth bond which is hopefully fairly safe, but will grow very slowly rather than the hot stock which may take off and earn you a bundle, but could crash just as quickly.
- The last time there was a big boom that didn’t crash all the way back to the pre-boom prices was World War II. But the end of WWII came with a huge number of returning soldiers with GI Bill money to go buy a house for their baby boom families. I can’t imagine anything today that would qualify as a surge in demand that would compare to WWII cultural shifts.
Keep in mind that the actual numbers are adjusted for inflation and are national averages. It’s the trends that count more than the actual average sale price.
What are your thoughts when you look at this chart?
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