Arch City Homes » Market Conditions

Housing Market Trends and the Economy

Karen Goodman — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 07:42:26 +0000

A few weeks ago I attended the Keller Williams 2010 Family Reunion.

With over 8000 agents and real estate market center staff in attendance, Gary Keller spent the first morning giving his Vision Speech.

One of the reasons I have been so happy with my decision to join Keller Williams is the fabulous education that is available for agents whether they are new to the industry or seasoned professionals. As much as I would like to tell you that I spend my days reading every news story about the real estate market and what is happening in the economy, there just aren’t enough hours for me to do that and to take care of my clients.

So, I focus my research energy on studying the St. Louis housing market, and rely on my brokerage to keep me up to date on economic forces affecting the national housing market.

Click on the picture below to see the portion of the Gary Keller’s Vision Speech presentation which outlined the changes in economic trends and their impact on the housing market.

Highlights:

Housing Market:

The number of home sales started declining in 2005. The increase in home sales in 2009 is a first step in the housing recovery.
While home sales increased in 2009, the median sale price declined by 12%.
Annual appreciation rates of homes from 1990-2000 was between 3-5% per year. From 2001-2005, annual appreciation skyrocketed to 7-12% annually. None of us should be surprised that prices have dropped in the last few years to counterbalance the excessive grow of the early 2000s.
Inventory is finally starting to head back towards a balanced market (a 6 month supply is considered a balanced housing market).
Mortgage rates are dramatically lower today than they have been over the last 20 years. They are even lower than during the housing boom years of 2003-2005 when low mortgage rates helped fuel home sales.
Homes today are more affordable than they have been in 40 years. Over the last 40 years, a family at the median income used 21.9% of their income to buy a median sale priced home. In 2009, the median family income only needed 15% of their income to pay a mortgage on the median home price.
Missouri had a low level of foreclosures over the last two years – between 1-5% of the sales were foreclosures.

U.S. Economy:

There was negative inflation in 2009 for the 1st time since 1998. However, the return of normal inflation levels in November and December 2009 is a positive sign for the economy.
High unemployment rates continue to be a problem and need to be stabilized in order for the economy to recover.

Check back for Part 2 of the Vision Speech presentation – National Association of Realtors Buyer & Seller survey results.

Housing Market Trends and the Economy is a post from: Arch City Homes

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How Many St. Louis Homes Fail to Sell?

Karen Goodman — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 03:22:45 +0000

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been posting information to show you how the St. Louis housing market has been doing in the last few years.

Earlier this month I published reports showing that the vast majority of homes and condos which sold in 2009 were priced below $200,000. Owners with higher priced homes have had an uphill battle trying to sell.

Then in the last couple of days, I showed you the appreciation rate of homes and condos.

St. Louis region homeowners who have owned their homes since 1999 have seen appreciation rates that are not far off from the historical appreciation rate of 4% per year. However, both homes and condos have been depreciating in the last several years.

Homeowners who purchased at the peak of the market in 2005-2006 and need to sell are finding themselves in the difficult position of owning a home that is worth less today than it was when they bought it.

How Many Homes are Selling…and How Many are Failing to Sell?

Take a look at the charts below to see the impact that the depressed housing market has had on the number of homes that have sold each year since 1999.

Even more dramatic is the number of owners who failed to sell.

The data represents residential for sale home listings through the St. Louis area MLS (MARIS). Failed listings included expired, withdrawn and canceled listings.

More Condos Failed to Sell Compared to Homes:

The last few years have been hard on all St. Louis sellers, but condo owners have been harder hit than owners of single family homes.

Every agent I have talked with in the last year about the housing market agrees that condos have been harder to sell compared to single family homes.

The data backs up the impressions that I’ve had for a few years. Today, more condos are failing to sell than are successfully selling. Depending on where you live, only 3-4 of every 10 condo listings will sell. Take a guess on how that impacts pricing.

In addition, throughout the housing boom years, many agents got into the habit of canceling a listing so they could immediately re-list the property under a new MLS# in hopes that the property would get new attention as a new listing. The technique wasn’t very effective at getting homes sold, but many agents thought that it was worth a try if they had a property on the market that wasn’t getting showings.

The result is that many of the “failed” listings between 2002-2006 really did sell through a subsequent MLS#, and the failed listing number is likely inflated. A couple of years ago, the MLS board cracked down on agents using this technique and it rarely happens anymore.

Plus, the number of “sold” listings in the last few years is also inflated since many homes listed for sale have been getting rented instead of sold. Rather than canceling the listing, most agents simply enter the monthly rental rate as the ’sold’ price.

When you factor in the impact of canceling & re-posting listings along with homes that didn’t really sell but were actually rented, the true increase in failed listings is probably more dramatic than the charts demonstrate.

How Many St. Louis Homes Fail to Sell? is a post from: Arch City Homes

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What is the Appreciation Rate of St. Louis Condos?

Karen Goodman — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 13:20:02 +0000

Yesterday I posted charts showing the appreciation rate for homes since 1999 in the St. Louis area.

I chose not to lump condos and homes together when putting together these appreciation rate charts, because the single family home market and the condo market do not necessarily have the same pricing trends.

Condo sales have definitely been depressed in the last few years, with only 13% of 2009 St. Louis area buyers choosing a condo instead of a house. With only a small percentage of buyers looking for condos, more condo owners were unsuccessful when attempting to sell than single family home sellers.

By looking at the median sale price for the condos that did sell each year, we can see how condos have appreciated over the last 10 years.

What is the Appreciation Rate of St. Louis Condos?

The St. Louis MLS system includes realtor-listed condo sales since 1999. Granted, every property that sells is not listed in the MLS. However, by comparing the median sale price of MLS listed properties from year to year, we can get a good idea about how the market has been doing.

I’ve put together some charts to see how condos have been appreciating (or depreciating) in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County over the last 10 years.

Since the housing market historically appreciates about 4% per year when you look at sale prices over long periods of time, I added a line that tracks how home values would have increased if they had simply appreciated 4% each year since 1999.

As a reminder, these charts simply track changes in the market as a whole.

Increases in value can include both increases in the value of specific properties AND the impact of rehabbing older properties or new construction properties built in an older area. Decreases in median sale price includes both reductions in the value of specific properties AND a trend with buyers opting to choose less expensive condos.

Keep in mind that the value of any particular condo will not necessarily mirror the trends noted below.

St. Louis City:

Average annual appreciation rate from 1999-2009 = 5.97%

St. Louis County:

Average annual appreciation rate from 1999-2009 = 3.82%

St. Charles County:

Average annual appreciation rate from 1999-2009 = 6.08%

NOTE: These charts include new & resale condos, villas, townhomes, rowhomes and lofts which were listed in the MLS under the Condo category.

Next Up…Part 3 – How Many St. Louis Homes Fail to Sell?

What is the Appreciation Rate of St. Louis Condos? is a post from: Arch City Homes

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What is the Appreciation Rate of St. Louis Homes?

Karen Goodman — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 14:40:13 +0000

For the last few years, most of the news about the housing market has been about how prices are down.

Clearly, prices HAVE come down for most properties when you compare today’s value to prices at the peak of the housing boom (2005 or 2006 for most areas).

I was one of the people who bought a new home at the peak of the market (August 2005). If I needed to sell today, I would likely lose money.

But looking at any 3-4 year stretch doesn’t show you the full picture of what is happening in the market. Housing prices can go up & down in the short term (and 3-4 years is short term for the housing market), but most properties will appreciate over time.

Historically, the housing market has appreciated about 4% per year when you look at home prices over long periods of time.

Even with today’s down market, most St. Louis area homes that were bought 10 years ago will have appreciated since their purchase.

But, how much these homes have appreciated really varies depending on where they are located.

What is the Appreciation Rate of St. Louis Homes?

The St. Louis MLS system includes realtor-listed home sales since 1999. Granted, every property that sells is not listed in the MLS. However, by comparing the median sale price of MLS listed properties from year to year, we can get a good idea about how the market has been doing.

I’ve put together some charts to see how homes have been appreciating (or depreciating) in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County over the last 10 years.

As a comparison, I added a line that tracks how home values would have increased if they had simply appreciated 4% each year.

Keep in mind that the value of any particular home will not necessarily mirror the trends noted below.

St. Louis City:

Average annual appreciation rate from 1999-2009 = 5.01%

St. Louis County:

Average annual appreciation rate from 1999-2009 = 1.45%

St. Charles County:

Average annual appreciation rate from 1999-2009 = 3.42%

Next Up…Part 2 – Appreciation rates of St. Louis area condos

What is the Appreciation Rate of St. Louis Homes? is a post from: Arch City Homes

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St. Louis Region Housing Market Report – 2009 Condo Sales

Karen Goodman — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 13:49:02 +0000

Unlike single family homes which have different trends across the 3 counties that make up the St. Louis market, condo sales followed a similar pattern in St Louis City and County during 2009. St. Charles County’s sales distribution differed in that there were no sales above $500,000.

Though plenty of single family homes sold under $100,000, the numbers are dramatically lower for dirt cheap condos. Regardless of the county, the majority of condos are selling between $100,000 – $200,000.

2009 Condo Sales:

Take a look below to see the differences in sales of condos for the 3 major counties that make up the St. Louis region. The charts below include condos and villas that closed during 2009 which were listed in the MLS. The data is obtained through MARIS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Is the Market Getting Better or Worse?

It depends on your price range and your county.

Compare the 2009 charts above to the same time period during 2008.

2009 Report Summary:

St. Louis City:
- 18% of condos sold for under $100,000
- 49% of sales were priced between $100,000 – $200,000 and 20% of sales were between $200,000 – $300,000
- 87% were priced under $300,000
St. Louis County:
- 25% of condos sold for under $100,000
- 54% of sales were priced between $100,000 – $200,000 and 11% of sales were between $200,000 – $300,000
- 90% were priced under $300,000
St. Charles County:
- 20% of condos sold for under $100,000
- 69% of sales were priced between $100,000 – $200,000 and 9% of sales were between $200,000 – $300,000
- 98% were priced under $300,000

The most dramatic difference is not in condo sales by county, but between condo and single family home sales. With only 2,702 closed condo sales across all 3 counties, there is very low demand for condos compared to single family homes (17,645 closed sales). With only 13% of closed sales in the condo category, it’s simply much harder to sell a condo than it is a single family home.

How Long Does it Take to Sell a Condo?

Compared to home sales where just over half of the closed sales got a contract in 60 days or less, condos take a much longer time to sell. Take particular note at how much the sellers came down from their list price. Sellers that wait it out for that needle in a haystack buyer, end up coming down dramatically lower in order to sell.

If you factor in the low number of buyers that are looking for condos overall and your price range, you can see that finding a buyer will be tough if you are not priced to meet buyer expectations.

Let’s assume you are trying to sell a condo in St. Louis County that is priced in the $200,000s. With only 13% of the region’s buyers looking at condos, you have a shot at about 1 in 10 buyers. But, when you factor in the county and the price range (6% of the condo buyers bought in St. Louis County in the $200s), you would need to find that needle in a haystack buyer.

What does all this mean?

If you are trying to sell a condo, there just aren’t many buyers in any price range. If you aren’t priced between $100,000 – $200,000, it will be extremely hard to sell and you need to price it aggressively if you hope to get it sold. But in EVERY price range, you need to be competitively priced if you hope to sell at all.

If you are trying to buy a condo, you should have a lot to choose from compared to buyers of single family homes. With a high level of inventory available and very low demand for condos, buyers are getting great deals.

To see more market statistic charts, see the market reports by community or zip codes.

St. Louis Region Housing Market Report – 2009 Condo Sales is a post from: Arch City Homes

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St. Louis Region Housing Market Report – 2009 Home Sales

Karen Goodman — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 04:11:18 +0000

Last year I reported that the majority of buyers were choosing lower priced homes with little demand in the higher price ranges.

Even with the daily bad economic news, people have continued to buy homes throughout 2008 and 2009. However, buyers concerned about the economy clearly made conservative spending choices. Homes appropriate for first time buyers and investors made up a big portion of the sales in the last 2 years.

2009 Home Sales:

Take a look below to see the differences in sales of single family home sales for the 3 major counties that make up the St. Louis region. The charts below include residential sales that closed between in 2009 and were listed in the MLS. The data is obtained through MARIS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Is the Market Getting Better or Worse?

It depends on your price range and your county.

Compare the 2009 charts above to sales in 2008.

2009 Report Summary:

There isn’t much of a demand in any of the counties for high priced homes. The vast majority of homes that sold were priced below $300,000. However, there are big differences between the trends in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and St. Charles County.

St. Louis City:
- more homes sold under $100,000 than in any other price range (50%)
- 88% of sales were priced under $200,000
- 96% were priced under $300,000
St. Louis County:
- more homes sold under $100,000 than in any other price range (37%)
- 70% of sales were priced under $200,000 (with almost as many selling between $100-200k (33%) as in the $1-100k price range)
- 85% of the homes sold under $300,000
St. Charles County:
- 6% of sales were under $100,000 (dramatically lower than both other counties)
- 63% of sales were priced under $200,000 (with 57% of home sales between $100-200k)
- 90% of the homes sold under $300,000

If you are trying to sell a home that is priced over $300,000, less than 1 in 10 home buyers are looking in your price range. When you break it down by county, there just aren’t many buyers.

Let’s say you are trying to sell a house priced in the $600,000s in St. Louis County. About 2% of St. Louis County home buyers might be interested with only 1% of the region’s home buyers in the correct price range. With only 215 St. Louis County buyers closing on a home in this price point in the last 12 months…or 18 per month for all of St. Louis County, you can’t afford to overprice your home and miss out on the few buyers that are out there.

How Long Does it Take to Sell a Home?

Contrary to popular opinion, there are homes that are selling quickly. Just over 3 in 10 homes sold in 30 days or less, and slightly more than half of the homes sold in 60 days or less.

I work hard to price my home listings correctly on day 1, and then extensively market the homes using today’s newest technologies to reach internet searching buyers. The result is that my listings sell quicker and closer to the list price than the general market.

What does all this mean?

If you are trying to sell a home and it is priced above or below the average sale prices for your county, there just aren’t a lot of buyers. You need to consider pricing your home aggressively if you hope to get it sold. If you don’t need to move, it might be smarter to stay put for a year or two until sales pick up in your price range.

If you are trying to buy a home, don’t be surprised if you end up competing with other buyers if you are looking at the same price range as the majority of buyers. If you are in a position to purchase a higher priced home, you should be able to find a great deal.

To see more market statistic charts, see the market reports by community or zip codes.

Check back for Part 2 of this series covering condo sale prices.

St. Louis Region Housing Market Report – 2009 Home Sales is a post from: Arch City Homes

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Missouri Property Tax Credit for Buyers

Karen Goodman — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 17:49:50 +0000

Missouri officials have just made it a little bit easier for home buyers this year.

Last year, Missouri (MO) was the first state to set up a program which allowed first time buyers to use most of the federal housing tax credit money for their down payment.

On Friday, Missouri did it again.

Missouri Property Tax Credit for Buyers

On December 18, 2009, a program was approved by the Missouri Housing Development Commission (MHDC) to help eligible MO home buyers pay for the first year of property taxes (up to $1250) and provide an incentive for purchasing energy efficient homes or appliances (up to $500).

Governor Jay Nixon’s news release explained:

Under the new program, eligible Missouri families who enter into a contract to purchase a new or existing Missouri home after Jan. 1, 2010, would have their property tax for the year paid, up to $1,250. In addition, to support the creation of “green jobs” in Missouri, families would be eligible for an additional $500 in tax relief if they purchase an energy-efficient home, or items to make the home more energy-efficient, such as Energy Star appliances. The total tax relief for any one family would be capped at $1,750.

Details on how the program will work are pretty sketchy at this point, but the article did note:

Funds for the tax-relief and energy-efficiency initiatives will be available after Jan. 1, 2010, on a first-come, first-served basis. Forms and affidavits will be part of the documents executed by the purchaser at the closing of the sale to prevent fraudulent use of funds. Additional receipts and documentation will be required for proof of energy-efficiency upgrades.

An article that the Governor’s office put out on November 24, 2009 prior to approval of the program gave additional information:

Who is eligible?

Income eligibility is based on previously adopted MHDC guidelines. Depending on the county of the home sale, household income limit guidelines for low to moderate income persons or families approved by MHDC last spring range from $58,300 to $98,560. These grants are for owner-occupied purchases only.

When would it start?

If approved by the MHDC at its next meeting on Dec. 18, 2009, funds would be available for contracts entered into after Jan. 1, 2010, on a first-come, first-served basis.

Where is the funding for this program coming from?

The funding would come from a reserve fund held by MHDC earned through successful management of mortgage loans made to low- and medium-income individuals and families. These reserve funds are not from general revenue, nor subject to the legislature’s appropriation process.

How much of the property tax bill could be paid?

Eligible homeowners could have up to $1,750 of their property tax bills paid. According to the State Tax Commission, the average residential real estate tax bill for a Missouri homeowner is $1,160. An income-qualified individual or family is eligible to receive $1,250 or the amount of their first year’s real estate tax bill, whichever is highest, when they purchase a new or existing residential home. An income-qualified individual or family can enhance this base amount, up to $1,750, if they purchase an energy-efficient new home or make energy efficient improvements to an existing home that is purchased. These improvements must be made prior to closing or within 60 days of closing.

How do Missourians apply for these funds?

Forms and affidavits will be part of documents executed at the home sale closing. Additional receipts and documentation will be required for proof of energy efficient improvements.

What energy-efficiency upgrades would be eligible for the additional incentive?

Eligible improvements would include installing high-performance windows, house wraps, programmable thermostat controls, water-efficient toilets and faucets, and energy-efficient water heaters, lighting and appliances; sealing heating and air conditioning ductwork; caulking; insulating water heater pipes; increasing the R-value of insulation in crawl spaces and attics; and conducting on-site energy efficiency inspections and tests, including a blower door test, which tests the overall energy efficiency of the house, and a duct blaster test, which tests how much the air ductwork leaks.

The article also pointed out that Missouri is recovering from the economic recession faster than most other states:

In a report earlier this month that identified Missouri as one of 11 states most likely to recover from this recession the quickest, Moody’s listed Missouri’s diverse economy and stable housing prices as one of the main reasons for a potentially quick economic recovery in comparison to other states.

Reasons to Buy Now vs. Waiting for the Spring Market:

This new tax incentive is only one of many reasons that MO buyers who are considering buying a home should do it now rather than wait until spring or summer.

Federal government tax credit for eligible 1st time buyers (up to $8,000) and repeat buyers (up to $6,500) only applies to buyers who have an accepted contract by April 30, 2010 and close by June 30, 2010
Missouri’s program (which will pay up to $1250 towards the first year’s property taxes and up to $500 towards energy efficient homes, improvements or appliances) has a limited amount of money and will eventually run out (the MHDC foreclosure down payment program ran out of money pretty quickly)
Interest rates continue to be at historically low levels, but at some point will start rising again
The current housing market offers prices on homes that are much lower than they were only a few years ago
Given the requirement of an accepted contract by the end of April 2010 for the federal tax credits, more sellers will be coming on the market in the winter rather than waiting until spring…giving buyers more homes to choose from over the winter than they will get later in the year

With all of these time sensitive incentives encouraging St. Louis buyers to purchase a home between January and April 2010, sellers who were planning to list their home in spring need to get on the market as soon as possible. If you were thinking about selling and haven’t yet chosen a real estate agent, I would welcome the opportunity to meet with you and discuss your home sale.

Missouri Property Tax Credit for Buyers is a post from: Arch City Homes

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This Month in Real Estate – December 2009

Karen Goodman — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:01:40 +0000

Video Highlights:

Impact of housing tax credit
Distribution of claims for the housing tax credit by state
Per capita claims of the housing tax credit by state

Check back each month for the latest video housing market report.

This Month in Real Estate – December 2009 is a post from: Arch City Homes

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What is the Appreciation Rate of Lake St. Louis Waterfront Homes?

Karen Goodman — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:31:21 +0000

St. Louis has very few options for homeowners who want to buy a waterfront home with lake access.

Lake St. Louis is the only area in the metro St. Louis area which allows residents to step down to their own dock, jump into their boat and enjoy the day on a 550 acre lake.

The city has two lakes (550 acres and 75 acres) which are available for use only by residents living within the Lake St. Louis Communication Association boundaries.

Pricing Trends for Lake St. Louis Waterfront Homes:

Each year, only a few dozen waterfront homes sell in the Lake St. Louis area. With such a limited supply of waterfront homes, these homes sell for a premium compared to nearby homes without direct lake access. Still, the current down housing market has impacted these homes along with the rest of the community.

When housing appreciation rates are tracked over long periods of time, research has found that most homes appreciate an average of 4% annually. The 1st chart below shows how the housing bubble resulted in overinflated prices for waterfront homes followed by a market correction. The end result is that today’s prices are not much different than if there had not been a bubble or a market correction. Since 2000, the Lake St. Louis waterfront homes have appreciated 3.2% annually instead of the typical 4% historical appreciation rates. Honestly, I don’t think that’s too bad given today’s economy.

*** NOTE: 2009 statistics are YTD through 12/10/09. Data is obtained through MARIS and includes MLS listed homes sales. The data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Buy a Lake St. Louis Waterfront Home:

Now is a great time to buy a waterfront home in Lake St. Louis. Home prices have come back down to reasonable levels, buyer demand is still low (resulting in better prices for buyers!) and interest rates are at historically low levels.

Take a look at the waterfront homes that are currently available. If you would like to schedule a showing, simply contact me and I can set it up for you.

(The links with MLS listings are only good for 30 days, so if you found this post and the link is no longer working, simply contact me and I’ll send you everything currently on the market)

What is the Appreciation Rate of Lake St. Louis Waterfront Homes? is a post from: Arch City Homes

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This Month in Real Estate – November 2009

Karen Goodman — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:33:11 +0000

Video Highlights:

Mortgage interest rates compared to last month and last year
The impact of professional staging on selling a home
Staging tips for homeowners

Special Edition – Updated 2009 Homebuyer Tax Credit:

Video Highlights:

Revised requirements for first time buyer tax credit
Requirements for new existing homeowner tax credit
Homes that qualify for the tax credit
3 year requirement to avoid having to repay the tax credit
Special provisions for members of the military and foreign service

Check back each month for the latest video housing market report.

This Month in Real Estate – November 2009 is a post from: Arch City Homes

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